Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0c2148bead7e0a65197c35c994603b713ba3847ef6c928b14e7fc16dd1ce99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 424.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 231.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 219$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 194.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 138.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 118.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 101.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 34c | 85.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 84.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 74.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 55.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 54.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 31c | 50.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 45.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 23.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.