Tennis · resolved market
ITF Monastir: Karla Bartel vs Arina Arifullina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff504a5b37ad0b87434af13a845d6d5fcd28dd34b77698724dba2421b329d811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arina Arifullinaof Karla Bartel, Arina Arifullina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Karla Bartel | 48c | 4,317$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.57 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arina Arifullina | 49c | 2,250$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.5 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Karla Bartel | 37c | 1,623$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.37 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arina Arifullina | 49c | 1,494$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.11 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Karla Bartel | 30c | 861.81$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Arina Arifullina | 51c | 707.96$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.9 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Arina Arifullina | 51c | 271$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…90dbbacked Arina Arifullina | 45c | 220.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Karla Bartel | 6c | 193.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Karla Bartel | 18c | 192$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Arina Arifullina | 49c | 171.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Arina Arifullina | 52c | 144.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Arina Arifullina | 52c | 143.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Karla Bartel | 67c | 106.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Arina Arifullina | 33c | 89.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Arina Arifullina | 51c | 83.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Karla Bartel | 22c | 77.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Arina Arifullina | 49c | 58.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Arina Arifullina | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Arina Arifullina | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Karla Bartel | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Arina Arifullina | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Arina Arifullina | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…9b44backed Arina Arifullina | 65c | 43.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Arina Arifullina | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Karla Bartel | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Arina Arifullina | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 268 | 49.3%132 W · 136 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Karla Bartel | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Karla Bartel | 68c | 24.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Arina Arifullina | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Arina Arifullina | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Karla Bartel | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Arina Arifullina | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.