Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Bergs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9e02d7146c0f362772c91122e103a723e8f40e30b8c7d6dc1225f928f6a982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Cobolli, Bergs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Bergs | 55c | 898.97$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.87 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cobolli | 50c | 673.82$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.43 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Bergs | 50c | 569.62$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.27 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Cobolli | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cobolli | 52c | 239.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bergs | 30c | 207.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Bergs | 46c | 200.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Cobolli | 49c | 197.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Cobolli | 57c | 141.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bergs | 49c | 124.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Cobolli | 53c | 122.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Cobolli | 59c | 113.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bergs | 41c | 88.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c059backed Cobolli | 58c | 67.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Bergs | 36c | 61.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bergs | 53c | 43.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Bergs | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Bergs | 43c | 27.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…d692backed Cobolli | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Cobolli | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…d60dbacked Cobolli | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Bergsthis page
- BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou BergsFlavio Cobolli won
- Cobolli vs. Bergs: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Flavio Cobolli vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5)Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.