Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffae7b38ccb6f205d65e4b7f46739f34fb53723ec3e65007bf0ab0f779238920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 64c | 207.41$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 36c | 205$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 28c | 204.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 37c | 151.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 64c | 103.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 100.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 87.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 87.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 33c | 80.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…edd1backed Yes | 46c | 80.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked No | 63c | 80.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 60c | 80.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 72.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 65.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 64.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…ddb8backed Yes | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 64c | 61.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 50.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes | 39c | 46.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 40c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 42c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 47c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or higher on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.