Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffb78f21e84c83c58d4acf862e8d93e121ec0c3a467e0772a51b76367edfcce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…1365backed Yes | 4c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 427.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 249.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 60c | 235.81$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 53c | 235$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 60c | 216.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…0f7bbacked Yes | 14c | 187.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 155.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 10c | 154.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 121.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 106.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 34c | 90.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 49c | 64.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 63.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 24c | 57.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 38c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 32c | 56.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 55.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 50.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 26c | 49.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 48.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 46.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 72c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 69c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 27.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 63c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 59c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 67c | 22.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.