Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d75fe978e6365bade68cf92fcd8cd70012c91210533ad181c51ab3a80da5bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 2,074$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 8c | 1,036$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 956.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 47c | 675.45$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.17 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 72c | 629.98$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 568.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 528.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 78c | 371.87$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 54c | 348$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 284.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 8c | 282.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 262.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 171.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 156.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 14c | 154.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 117.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 104.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 73c | 103.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 25c | 98.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 53c | 93.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 66c | 92.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 87.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…5f66backed No | 54c | 86.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 13c | 84.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked No | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 56c | 64.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 21c | 63.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 60.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 57.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 55c | 56.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…38afbacked No | 54c | 55.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 36c | 52.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 52.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 51.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 50.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 64c | 49.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 45.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 66c | 41.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 61c | 40.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 37.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 31c | 37.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 67c | 36.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 61c | 32.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 31.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 51c | 30.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 50c | 30.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…6b2dbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…e34ebacked Yes | 41c | 24.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 63c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.