Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00128a954b7b3d5e92a5072dc65e5fa1b7f026ad6f7dd77d9c661397363b36f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 2,947$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 75c | 999.85$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.96 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 838.02$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 793.41$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.04 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…21f2backed Over | 49c | 791.25$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Over | 52c | 776.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 741.08$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.06 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 51c | 594.08$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 550.7$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 80c | 474.37$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 48c | 299.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 290.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 61c | 195.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 32c | 186.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 125.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 54c | 102.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 61c | 101.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 52c | 99.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 23c | 91.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Under | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 39c | 72.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 45c | 66.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 62.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 58.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 38c | 41.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 71c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 32.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 53c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 70c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.