Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x001c87cc80a41105d7ec2d6837a2a2c3406fffe956c6026d7bd85c4e575260a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 7c | 322.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 73c | 226.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 169.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 9c | 152.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 17c | 149.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked No | 72c | 138.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 130.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 130.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 124.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 17c | 117.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 111.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 106.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 91.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 16c | 86.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 23c | 72.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 56c | 58.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed No | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 56c | 47.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 66c | 47.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 48c | 42.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 38c | 35.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 51c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 56c | 26.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 26.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 74c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.