Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc059aecff106b947bc330666823bf3074cb019abf2d5b0cbb92e7b9a4f81a104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 610$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.93 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 202.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 64c | 199.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 195.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 194.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 131.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 130.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 117.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 113.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 23c | 108.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…bba6backed Yes | 35c | 108.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 93.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 35c | 93.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 92.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…18d5backed Yes | 35c | 88.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 36c | 88.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…2a24backed Yes | 35c | 84.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 84.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 82.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 23c | 79.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 79.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 74.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 38c | 66.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 63.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 63.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 61.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 62c | 61.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 60.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 57.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 56.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 56.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 53.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 47.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 47.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 46.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 69c | 41.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 34c | 38.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 36.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed No | 42c | 36.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 34.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 33.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 58c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 30.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 46c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 44c | 28.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…55d7backed No | 67c | 28.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 63c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 19.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 68c | 15.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 15.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.