TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ba7…3d88backed No70c803$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2947866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c379.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.423,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes29c347.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.77138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c265.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes26c205.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1149854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes37c204.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9215051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes38c202.76$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.053,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed Yes30c200.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.035448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c193.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed Yes30c174.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes26c174.37$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No69c159.97$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.591,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes37c154.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.371,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.525935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes30c146$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c129.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.331,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No70c125.44$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4512046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c122.9$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.352,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c121.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.134,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c118.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes32c115$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.132,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes27c110.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No58c99.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9816046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes47c95.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No63c93.31$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.22,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No78c89.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3660054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c78.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c71.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2117324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No53c64.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.413551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No53c64.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes30c64.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.241,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No49c62.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c60.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.458,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes26c57.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.852,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes41c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.628441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes30c51.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3852828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21ae…ab03backed Yes41c51.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-46.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.512544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84a4…5805backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes32c47.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes44c45.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6671…e109backed No60c43.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No67c42.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.161,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23ac…7cfebacked No60c41.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.711060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No64c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6242160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes28c40.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4546549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c38.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No63c38.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes35c35.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5527130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2350…a351backed Yes39c34.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44560%27 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes36c34.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No65c34.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d7…aaa8backed Yes41c33.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No56c32.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ad…dfbdbacked No70c30.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.151675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No69c28.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1144567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…6663backed No73c24.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.691154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x640c…7010backed No73c23.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdac…b662backed No66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.732055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No68c22.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.093,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No66c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf77e…4c8dbacked No70c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No62c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No65c20.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.613852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No62c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c19.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.191,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No56c18.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0328866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No70c16.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.051,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4784…2f0cbacked No66c16.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.