Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0020fda47604a2d66ffa8e2f9dfaa9a358f4a179d9375a06adca1a6efb5bfde4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 2,235$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.93 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 42c | 1,755$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.12 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 794.89$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.62 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 788.36$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.75 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 698.22$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 667.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.72 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed Over | 24c | 649.37$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 43c | 449.76$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.61 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 443.23$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.05 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 29c | 383.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.33 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 40c | 298.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 43c | 241$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 43c | 233$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 72.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…1faebacked Under | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…191cbacked Over | 25c | 62.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 59.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 74cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Under | 43c | 29.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1813backed Under | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 77c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)Kashima Antlers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.