Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a04eb7c5d4b3411c6443be32b0e6c6584cf135d0c4995fc06f4e35889dcc058
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,521$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.26 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 47c | 2,152$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 49c | 1,184$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.04 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 48c | 499.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 453.46$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 49c | 299.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Over | 58c | 240$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 224.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 175.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…cdfcbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 65c | 89.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 44c | 50.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 73c | 49.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 42c | 45.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92ac…16cdbacked Under | 43c | 38.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 37.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…191cbacked Under | 50c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…5107backed Over | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed Under | 46c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 52c | 31.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 60c | 30.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…338fbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 48c | 29.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 27.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Under | 62c | 26.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…711fbacked Over | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 48c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…5730backed Over | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…499dbacked Over | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…bfa6backed Over | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)Kashima Antlers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.