Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a530fa7e188edc8caeb8d3e54f96180f11560978d2b034e251dc175cbe9059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kashima Antlersof Kashima Antlers, FC Mito Holly Hock
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 69c | 1,632$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.2 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Kashima Antlers | 31c | 1,340$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.86 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Kashima Antlers | 31c | 909.58$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.76 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 67c | 885.21$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.35 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 68c | 586.76$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Kashima Antlers | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Kashima Antlers | 30c | 480$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 67c | 339.82$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…0de7backed Kashima Antlers | 32c | 248.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 29cpaid | +256.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Kashima Antlers | 46c | 116.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 73c | 95.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kashima Antlers | 30c | 72.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed Kashima Antlers | 33c | 66.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Kashima Antlers | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 67c | 42.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 70c | 30.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Kashima Antlers | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…93c2backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 69c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 51c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Kashima Antlers | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 69c | 21.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)Kashima Antlers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.