Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump privatize USPS in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003cbafa0f05f6b5aae1b50144107d8f3478cef8f28488c78746d5dda182489f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc847…d3afbacked Yes | 5c | 3,554$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 2c | 2,833$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 4c | 2,810$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,222$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2163backed Yes | 2c | 1,389$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,295$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 4c | 853.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 650.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 590.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 562.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 555$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 7c | 448.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 6c | 399.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…9e21backed Yes | 4c | 290$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 7c | 279.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 7c | 238.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8df…5950backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 14c | 190.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a2a8backed Yes | 8c | 142.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.