MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00600ae395e938696d9d9189e604f1ce06fcfd179adea95df57cd0d22831b308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9ac…1eebbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 2,410$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 2,400$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 931.24$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.56 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 530$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 482$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 388.41$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 243.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 188.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 133.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 126.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 97.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 87.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 69.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 62.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 52.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 203 | 51.7%105 W · 98 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 39.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 31.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 30.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 25.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.