Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0060a7c912ab36292d3cfb5f6245945854e780e2684c058ace23739dc4345f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Carabelli, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Carabelli | 8c | 5,856$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Carabelli | 14c | 3,810$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.63 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carabelli | 15c | 3,022$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.7 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…9117backed Tien | 77c | 2,600$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Carabelli | 14c | 1,307$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Carabelli | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Carabelli | 23c | 1,169$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.77 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Tien | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed Tien | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Carabelli | 19c | 925.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Carabelli | 22c | 732.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Carabelli | 15c | 622.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Carabelli | 13c | 562.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Carabelli | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Tien | 71c | 440.94$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Carabelli | 22c | 416.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Carabelli | 12c | 379$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Tien | 74c | 372.49$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Carabelli | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Carabelli | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Tien | 72c | 299.97$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Carabelli | 17c | 284$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Carabelli | 21c | 263.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Carabelli | 14c | 178.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tien | 73c | 137.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Carabelli | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Carabelli | 11c | 99.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Carabelli | 14c | 81.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Carabelli | 28c | 78.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Carabelli | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…e3a0backed Tien | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…f431backed Tien | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8396…0de1backed Tien | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…4cc3backed Tien | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…e75dbacked Tien | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Tien | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner Tienthis page
- Carabelli vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Carabelli vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Carabelli vs TienTien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.