MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00717191bca834ad5280b6e00e2ce4262acfd7dba16becaabe954d73e21c078d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 53c | 163.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Yes | 49c | 80.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 59.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed No | 52c | 48.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 59c | 48.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed No | 52c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…594cbacked No | 52c | 29.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed No | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed No | 52c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed No | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…f977backed No | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…8045backed No | 52c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked No | 52c | 25.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed No | 52c | 25.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed No | 52c | 24.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed No | 52c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…c7edbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…5010backed No | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked No | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked No | 52c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…dc0bbacked No | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…6fc2backed No | 52c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…8ab8backed No | 52c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed No | 52c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked No | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…0ecabacked No | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed No | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed No | 52c | 22.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…af4dbacked No | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…9923backed No | 52c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed No | 52c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked No | 52c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed No | 52c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…adc3backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed No | 52c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…3f68backed No | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7a2bbacked No | 52c | 21.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…32dbbacked No | 52c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed No | 52c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked No | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…e37bbacked No | 52c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed No | 52c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…cacfbacked No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.