MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4273da5b6932238a629b94a1e9e6afdca16110d3cb3f3c23a90c2bd530a8e7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 55,780$28,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,569.61 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 49c | 20,605$10,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,540.48 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 10,516$4,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,769.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 8,677$3,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 5,001$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.48 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 4,580$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 44c | 4,197$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.43 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 3,453$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 49c | 2,759$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.99 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,585$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.53 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 54c | 1,484$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.34 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 50c | 1,234$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 999.97$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 902.75$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 902.75$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.32 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 49c | 799.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 50c | 784.05$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.03 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 763.95$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.62 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 51c | 686.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.62 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 14c | 530.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 452.13$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…1d7cbacked Over | 71c | 424.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 46c | 402.17$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 43c | 365$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 47c | 307.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 299.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 283.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 230.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 144.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 138$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 50c | 123.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 119.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 93.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Over | 53c | 91.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Over | 52c | 88.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 50c | 66.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 61.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 53c | 54.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 58c | 43.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 45c | 35.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 49c | 33.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…87a6backed Under | 48c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 58c | 30.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 26.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 41c | 25.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 49c | 24.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 51c | 23.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548e…ba7abacked Under | 48c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 52c | 20.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb873…8debbacked Over | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.