TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc365…2e53backed Los Angeles Dodgers48c8,857$4,208 inLost-$4,208.081,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres61c6,828$4,140 inWon+$2,688.4412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres63c1,047$660 inWon+$387.5391252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaecd…75b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers29c500$145 inLost-$1454924.5%12 W · 37 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd56c…bdd5backed Los Angeles Dodgers54c324.07$175 inLost-$1755545.5%25 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres53c316.17$166 inWon+$149.7611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres41c291$121 inWon+$170.36,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres71c276$196 inWon+$79.944,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed San Diego Padres63c204.76$129 inWon+$75.7622867.1%153 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers38c139.6$53 inLost-$52.65,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres46c120.73$56 inWon+$65.192,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres49c117.59$57 inWon+$60.52,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Los Angeles Dodgers51c92.46$47 inLost-$4710850.9%55 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed San Diego Padres57c71.93$41 inWon+$30.9347549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked San Diego Padres46c59.19$27 inWon+$32.1918444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked San Diego Padres57c57.89$33 inWon+$24.8916144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2411…d620backed San Diego Padres61c32.41$20 inWon+$12.642857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers50c30$15 inLost-$14.851,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked San Diego Padres57c29.82$17 inWon+$12.8254651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Los Angeles Dodgers46c27.73$13 inLost-$12.7226063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres54c23.53$13 inWon+$10.8410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed San Diego Padres61c19.95$12 inWon+$7.7858054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.