MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e2eb48d1c6dc4ce968adbfb1198af8cb2fab58958972583e0a06fcdc699a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 34,444$14,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,544.19 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 20,342$11,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,597.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 6,725$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 6,502$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 5,991$3,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 4,492$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.31 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 3,791$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 2,643$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 1,938$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.9 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 1,714$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.12 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,464$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 1,006$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.96 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 877.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.41 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 618.69$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.22 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 476.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 444.71$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 427.04$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 302.31$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 274.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 271.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 198.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 164.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 162$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 126.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…3b32backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 101.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 74.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 71.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 65.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 63.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 61.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 40.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 40.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 40.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 37.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9871…3096backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 35.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 32.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 32.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4799…07febacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 18.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 17.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.