Movies · resolved market
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Real Pain"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007e5823c23c6124f3b860cc050bb0fd21f1956d8b366aeb817acaecef6d5f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 12c | 2,362$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.85 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 7c | 1,200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 6c | 1,013$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 7c | 517$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed No | 11c | 409.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed No | 10c | 348.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…adcbbacked No | 10c | 333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 10c | 228$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed No | 8c | 206.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kieran Culkin win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Real Pain"?this page
- Will Edward Norton win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
- Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Apprentice"?No won
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Anora"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.