Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x008785e39598d287dc512730b2902704b99bffe7e5de3b296e4824c156fe1ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 663.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 6c | 351.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 323.29$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 310.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 190.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 189.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 16c | 154.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 36c | 140.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 133.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 106.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…843dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 93.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 89.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 77.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 73.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 67.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 66.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 60.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 21c | 52.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 51.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 50.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 47.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 46.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 45.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 22c | 44.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 43.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 41.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 28c | 35.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 35c | 28.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 22.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.