Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f9031d118867e2c66ee4ff41ad3c20cd634d4eb5a9308fd7298b4d93b961497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed No | 14c | 1,213$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 5c | 785.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 776.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 638.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 543.57$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 3c | 397.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.58 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 16c | 383.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 336.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 335.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.9 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 246.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.82 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 5c | 221.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.34 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 189.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 33c | 173.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 166.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 14c | 154.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 12c | 148.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 147.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 21c | 135.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…b788backed Yes | 8c | 134.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 44c | 133.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 43c | 124.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 112.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes | 15c | 109.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 104.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 79c | 101.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 61c | 86.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 15c | 75.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…bc11backed Yes | 14c | 72.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 58c | 65.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 55.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 65c | 49.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 57c | 47.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 43.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 32.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…6d37backed No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.