Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x300c8b4785b221479411d28ded61116116c6acef394315e221ffd2e0dd0a3276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 3c | 771.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 680.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 609.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 375.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 361.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 189.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 166.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 165.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 155.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 36c | 154.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 152.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 123.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 39c | 121.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96d…de5dbacked Yes | 54c | 119.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 117.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 112.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 111$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 48c | 101.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 101.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 13c | 92.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 89.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 71c | 88.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 84.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 74.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 72.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 36c | 70.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 68.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 45c | 66.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 61.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 18c | 57.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 52c | 53.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 50c | 48.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…0a95backed Yes | 26c | 44.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 52c | 41.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 46c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 33c | 35.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 33.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…026dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 79c | 32.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 69c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 26.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 59c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 61c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 16.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…a2d1backed No | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.