Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Mertens (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a409d8a0edc6714513e7a5b821814eb8cb876bd9d4eac72f2271215fbc4824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mertens | 17c | 46,527$7,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,739.39 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mertens | 11c | 40,971$4,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.96 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mertens | 17c | 29,614$5,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,032.31 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mertens | 17c | 18,750$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Mertens | 19c | 17,688$3,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.63 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mertens | 18c | 9,387$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.67 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mertens | 18c | 2,522$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.18 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mertens | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Mertens | 21c | 2,385$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Mertens | 18c | 2,222$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Mertens | 12c | 1,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Mertens | 5c | 1,153$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Mertens | 19c | 1,149$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Mertens | 7c | 1,149$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mertens | 9c | 1,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mertens | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Mertens | 15c | 1,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Mertens | 19c | 984$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Mertens | 18c | 798$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…4267backed Mertens | 18c | 552.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mertens | 17c | 548.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mertens | 19c | 525.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Mertens | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Mertens | 21c | 486.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Mertens | 19c | 478.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mertens | 21c | 477.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Mertens | 19c | 473.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 432.96$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Mertens | 19c | 394.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mertens | 9c | 320.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mertens | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mertens | 19c | 288.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Mertens | 17c | 260.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…d12fbacked Mertens | 17c | 208.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Mertens | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Mertens | 17c | 177$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Mertens | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mertens | 17c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Mertens | 13c | 104.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Sabalenka | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mertens | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Mertens | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Mertens | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mertens | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Mertens | 18c | 70.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Sabalenka | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…9b6ebacked Mertens | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.