Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a955b24261390fdd7d90e4439a2d8870786dc21b7ba2c5d68196f76c83931d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd471…edf8backed No | 15c | 4,739$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 9c | 4,219$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.43 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 3,380$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 15c | 2,938$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.77 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 16c | 1,865$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.33 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…fc6cbacked No | 15c | 1,067$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 14c | 944.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 15c | 674.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23a…d952backed No | 9c | 569.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 537.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…97cfbacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked No | 9c | 448.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked No | 14c | 304$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed No | 15c | 299.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 18c | 198.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 19c | 102.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…2f7dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed No | 15c | 81.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Yes | 70c | 62.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +10.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +330.1%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 29c | 41.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will FC St. Gallen win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.