Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00be2e5ef758f7c6c3e5199688a9c20b616d1ce4ff5d631efc593a36e670c836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Shpilitof Inner Circle, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,639 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Inner Circle | 54c | 2,460$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.25 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Team Shpilit | 48c | 2,441$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Shpilit | 45c | 2,320$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.83 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 49c | 1,128$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 572.92$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.29 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 47c | 503.95$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle | 54c | 464.74$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.23 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Inner Circle | 52c | 413.07$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle | 54c | 340.11$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…a80dbacked Inner Circle | 71c | 312.83$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.11 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Shpilit | 47c | 249.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Shpilit | 41c | 244.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Inner Circle | 68c | 224.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…d354backed Team Shpilit | 48c | 207.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Team Shpilit | 48c | 205.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Inner Circle | 63c | 177.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed Team Shpilit | 54c | 134.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle | 64c | 114.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 53c | 111.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Inner Circle | 52c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…cba2backed Team Shpilit | 51c | 96.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Shpilit | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Shpilit | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Inner Circle | 34c | 61.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Inner Circle | 45c | 58.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Team Shpilit | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…cf56backed Inner Circle | 57c | 47.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Team Shpilit | 46c | 43.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 39.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 37.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed Inner Circle | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Inner Circle | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Inner Circle | 45c | 29.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Shpilit | 53c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle | 53c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Inner Circle | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT Group BTeam Shpilit won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Shpilit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.