Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c93de0e62147449a3ad6c47d71876fe5cf1115f6bd18cbd3c233d7446e1d87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Shpilitof Inner Circle, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,797 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 2,017$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.14 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Shpilit | 31c | 1,788$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.31 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked Inner Circle | 70c | 1,033$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.14 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle | 56c | 858.41$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.87 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 701.91$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.27 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…e74dbacked Inner Circle | 72c | 650$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Inner Circle | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 39c | 516.44$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.55 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 438.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.57 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Shpilit | 39c | 425.31$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Team Shpilit | 43c | 336.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…14eabacked Inner Circle | 64c | 325.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Inner Circle | 69c | 273.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Team Shpilit | 11c | 228.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle | 61c | 210.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 202.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Inner Circle | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Team Shpilit | 41c | 195.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…4b3abacked Inner Circle | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Inner Circle | 69c | 148.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Inner Circle | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Team Shpilit | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Shpilit | 26c | 68.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Shpilit | 38c | 64.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Shpilit | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 59.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Inner Circle | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…735ebacked Team Shpilit | 40c | 58.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…1e8bbacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 57.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Team Shpilit | 49c | 56.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +474.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Team Shpilit | 42c | 53.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…16f1backed Inner Circle | 64c | 32.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Inner Circle | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Team Shpilit | 44c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 29.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Inner Circle | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed Inner Circle | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT Group BTeam Shpilit won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Shpilit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.