Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00bf95b567c68f8c5183d74e04eea444e1a5947f32b190a237219d0ee353b376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Flame Team | 27c | 1,065$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 699.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Flame Team | 25c | 580$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Flame Team | 21c | 573$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team | 14c | 456.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Flame Team | 24c | 409.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…7603backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 382$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team | 14c | 233.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Flame Team | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team | 16c | 199.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 188$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Flame Team | 18c | 146.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 135.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team | 23c | 128.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Flame Team | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Flame Team | 12c | 99.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Flame Team | 24c | 87.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Flame Team | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 42.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 WinnerFlame Team won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5)Flame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.