Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd966921e35183371e0c35da1f9ababddd1569e66b2aded410703b78f588de7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 9,177$6,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Flame Team | 30c | 5,423$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.76 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 5,000$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.95 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 3,880$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…7ba4backed Flame Team | 33c | 2,628$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.17 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…0465backed Flame Team | 30c | 2,556$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Flame Team | 6c | 2,363$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 2,069$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Flame Team | 31c | 2,034$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.93 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Flame Team | 13c | 1,918$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 1,450$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.33 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Flame Team | 42c | 1,193$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Flame Team | 30c | 1,159$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.71 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team | 20c | 979.38$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Flame Team | 11c | 936.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Flame Team | 30c | 930$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…ba5cbacked Flame Team | 31c | 886.75$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…9546backed Flame Team | 34c | 855$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team | 10c | 850.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…6afdbacked Flame Team | 9c | 846.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Flame Team | 27c | 647.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Flame Team | 29c | 640$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Flame Team | 31c | 609$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Flame Team | 11c | 594$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…35a3backed Flame Team | 8c | 575$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 550$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Flame Team | 30c | 542.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Flame Team | 6c | 542.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team | 18c | 533.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Flame Team | 30c | 526.67$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Flame Team | 25c | 525.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Flame Team | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 498.08$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team | 28c | 485.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed Flame Team | 30c | 483$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…9aeebacked Flame Team | 30c | 477.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 409.93$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team | 12c | 408.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Flame Team | 7c | 401.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Flame Team | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Flame Team | 35c | 350$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…f86fbacked Flame Team | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe31…71a1backed Flame Team | 22c | 284.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 266.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Flame Team | 31c | 265$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…0e1cbacked Flame Team | 26c | 251.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Flame Team | 7c | 248.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Flame Team | 8c | 246.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…7d44backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 242.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Flame Team | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Flame Team | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…123cbacked Flame Team | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Flame Team | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 215.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Flame Team | 10c | 212.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Flame Team | 5c | 205.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…f178backed Flame Team | 25c | 201.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…f3a4backed Flame Team | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked Flame Team | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Flame Team | 30c | 167.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Flame Team | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Flame Team | 32c | 157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team | 18c | 155.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…b3debacked Flame Team | 10c | 153.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Flame Team | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Flame Team | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Flame Team | 29c | 148.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…2febbacked Flame Team | 34c | 141.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 139.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7b93backed Flame Team | 31c | 135.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Flame Team | 16c | 133.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked Flame Team | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 111.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Flame Team | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 99.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Flame Team | 28c | 91.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Flame Team | 33c | 85.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed Flame Team | 32c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 68.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 65.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4720…007bbacked Flame Team | 30c | 59.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 58.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Flame Team | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked Flame Team | 28c | 42.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Flame Team | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Flame Team | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Flame Team | 30c | 33.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 26.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4ea6backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 WinnerFlame Team won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5)Flame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.