TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Flame Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca8e…ce7dbacked Natus Vincere68c9,177$6,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Flame Team30c5,423$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.7626843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Natus Vincere70c5,000$3,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.952763%17 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Natus Vincere69c3,880$2,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Flame Team33c2,628$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.173938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d18…0465backed Flame Team30c2,556$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.041369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Flame Team6c2,363$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1769835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Natus Vincere70c2,069$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Flame Team31c2,034$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.935740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Flame Team13c1,918$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.529047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere73c1,450$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.3379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Flame Team42c1,193$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Flame Team30c1,159$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.7126550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team20c979.38$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.091,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Flame Team11c936.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9219547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Flame Team30c930$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2794346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…ba5cbacked Flame Team31c886.75$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.631457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb7e…9546backed Flame Team34c855$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.72263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+75.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team10c850.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0166545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0e…6afdbacked Flame Team9c846.91$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked Flame Team27c647.73$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8110541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Flame Team29c640$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.69644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Flame Team31c609$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.067733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Flame Team11c594$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed Flame Team8c575$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.614065%26 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked Natus Vincere67c550$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Flame Team30c542.5$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.759744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Flame Team6c542.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.616141%25 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team18c533.86$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.462,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Flame Team30c526.67$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1583240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed Flame Team25c525.31$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13012132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed Flame Team6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Natus Vincere71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+100.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere71c498.08$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7153139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team28c485.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.581,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Flame Team30c483$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.987545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e2…9aeebacked Flame Team30c477.68$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Natus Vincere79c409.93$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4641455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team12c408.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.831,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed Flame Team7c401.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.584035%14 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Flame Team6c399.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed Flame Team35c350$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.534259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x341c…f86fbacked Flame Team32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe31…71a1backed Flame Team22c284.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere75c266.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7855561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Flame Team31c265$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1424138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2333…0e1cbacked Flame Team26c251.85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.481822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Flame Team7c248.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.392544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5513…2e2bbacked Flame Team8c246.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f9…7d44backed Natus Vincere74c242.07$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.966863.2%43 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Flame Team11c230$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.828544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Flame Team9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked Flame Team6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Flame Team13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Natus Vincere45c215.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.421968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Flame Team10c212.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2924636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Flame Team5c205.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3d…f178backed Flame Team25c201.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451e…f3a4backed Flame Team34c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.842433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f4…59eabacked Flame Team17c199.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342030%6 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Flame Team30c167.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Flame Team30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Flame Team32c157$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2414048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team18c155.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0438244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…b3debacked Flame Team10c153.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.313417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Flame Team11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.530041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Flame Team10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.397142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Flame Team29c148.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9571342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1031…2febbacked Flame Team34c141.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Natus Vincere72c139.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf8…7b93backed Flame Team31c135.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Flame Team16c133.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.071,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe0…e22ebacked Flame Team30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Natus Vincere72c111.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.724052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Natus Vincere66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick57cpaid+60.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Flame Team14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410937.6%41 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Natus Vincere74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2647548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked Natus Vincere71c99.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.682060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Flame Team28c91.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.739352.7%49 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Flame Team33c85.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.941,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7167…8ea3backed Flame Team32c82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere68c68.96$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9653757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Natus Vincere74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.574652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Natus Vincere71c65.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5627357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Natus Vincere46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.121333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Flame Team30c59.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Natus Vincere78c58.21$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.541450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Natus Vincere51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9535430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Natus Vincere51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9565337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Natus Vincere51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Flame Team34c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.368868.2%60 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa533…755fbacked Flame Team28c42.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.832142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Natus Vincere51c41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0928336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Flame Team25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Flame Team31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.855949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Flame Team30c33.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.319543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Natus Vincere57c26.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2418652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e1b…4ea6backed Natus Vincere69c21.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Natus Vincere71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.844474.8%332 W · 112 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.