Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1880da9388821c8f1dc9222ba944f8436dc814b75c39b98def75a709995f136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flame Teamof Natus Vincere, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 3,584$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.53 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Flame Team | 11c | 1,353$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.62 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 1,250$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flame Team | 24c | 1,103$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.76 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Flame Team | 71c | 1,072$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.75 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…9546backed Flame Team | 17c | 902.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7829…cfd3backed Flame Team | 6c | 876.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +320.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 869.98$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.13 | 474 | 50.8%241 W · 233 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 853$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.48 | 791 | 59.4%470 W · 321 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 831.22$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.19 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Flame Team | 38c | 808.8$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.72 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 57c | 574.29$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.83 | 474 | 57.4%272 W · 202 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 472.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Flame Team | 15c | 409.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.87 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 400.3$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…7603backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 399.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 349.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Flame Team | 18c | 342$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.44 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Flame Team | 50c | 318.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.57 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team | 10c | 310.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.59 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Flame Team | 58c | 309.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Flame Team | 12c | 248.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed Flame Team | 20c | 228.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Flame Team | 34c | 208$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Flame Team | 44c | 177.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Flame Team | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Flame Team | 55c | 165.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Flame Team | 32c | 158.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…ba5cbacked Flame Team | 20c | 152.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…e12bbacked Flame Team | 28c | 132.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Flame Team | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Flame Team | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…a319backed Flame Team | 59c | 110.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -8.2wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team | 48c | 110.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Flame Team | 36c | 108.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Flame Team | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 331 | 65.3%216 W · 115 L | +23.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Flame Team | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Flame Team | 68c | 94.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Flame Team | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…b9f8backed Flame Team | 57c | 88.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Flame Team | 58c | 79.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Flame Team | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Flame Team | 58c | 74.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Flame Team | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Flame Team | 48c | 55.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team | 59c | 43.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 40.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 545 | 48.4%264 W · 281 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Flame Team | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Flame Team | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Flame Team | 55c | 35.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Flame Team | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 402 | 42.3%170 W · 232 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5)Flame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.