Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c33799c23f8a61089abbb8d6ee4a234574cd3f6e6f023585a2c66b3b82dc5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Tiafoe, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe585…09efbacked Rinderknech | 49c | 2,845$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tiafoe | 53c | 2,354$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.43 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Rinderknech | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tiafoe | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Rinderknech | 55c | 709.57$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Rinderknech | 39c | 437.2$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.69 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f98backed Tiafoe | 51c | 390.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tiafoe | 45c | 360.29$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rinderknech | 76c | 320.81$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rinderknech | 40c | 280$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked Tiafoe | 60c | 270$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…e8d3backed Tiafoe | 61c | 262$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tiafoe | 43c | 209.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed Tiafoe | 61c | 165$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rinderknech | 48c | 93.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Tiafoe | 37c | 77.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Tiafoe | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tiafoe | 55c | 67.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Tiafoe | 45c | 67.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Rinderknech | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…c13cbacked Tiafoe | 61c | 39.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…cda9backed Rinderknech | 50c | 36.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Rinderknech | 66c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Rinderknech | 65c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Rinderknechthis page
- National Bank Open: Completed Match: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur RinderknechNo won
- National Bank Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur RinderknechArthur Rinderknech won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.