Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00cab0cb9dc5c55e50793738578c0896ab6d3b5c4c158ac28b026eded6629e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 291$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 243$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 7c | 194.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 176.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 162.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 133.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 131.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 131.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 130.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 114$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 98.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 42c | 92.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 83.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 37c | 83.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 25c | 62.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 72c | 61.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 59.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 59.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 48c | 56.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 74c | 54.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 50.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 46.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 69c | 40.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 55c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 51c | 36.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 36.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 36.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 53c | 29.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 62c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 39c | 28.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 58c | 25.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 46c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 56c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.