Earnings · resolved market
Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d480ad192a0cf494a9663a8d0fe22578b06ea4702f83acfb79bde049a5cf85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 1,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…bb59backed No | 23c | 439.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 278.78$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 24c | 277.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 24c | 257.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 72c | 208.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a2…657cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 22c | 86.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…b6b4backed No | 25c | 79.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 76c | 67.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 28c | 66.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 41.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 78c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…ac58backed Yes | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.