World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d4ad0c906960211c6a596a425f1317786815868edea9aa376ff03db4b74efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x196c…7a01backed Yes | 40c | 30,213$12,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,085.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…b3e9backed No | 60c | 30,213$18,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,085.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 56c | 3,073$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.7 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 43c | 1,444$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.6 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 40c | 955.16$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.06 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 43c | 709.19$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 559.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 335.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 48c | 270.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…56d6backed Yes | 45c | 190$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 35c | 126.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…2d35backed Yes | 42c | 72.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…8161backed No | 60c | 69.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 41c | 52.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 30.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 39c | 30.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 39c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…0af6backed No | 60c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?this page
- Will the Conservative Party win 47% or more of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win between 32% and 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win between 35% and 38% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?Yes won
- Will the Conservative Party win between 44% and 47% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.