Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d6b164875f523308ef3a4f9a8cf2f96beb6820763a21f2e957b80f229ccc5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Kölnof Hamburger SV, 1. FC Köln
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Hamburger SV | 14c | 1,159$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Hamburger SV | 10c | 384.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…9dc9backed Hamburger SV | 26c | 304.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…cc82backed Hamburger SV | 26c | 304.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…10dcbacked 1. FC Köln | 74c | 304.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…1fb0backed 1. FC Köln | 74c | 304.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Hamburger SV | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hamburger SV | 10c | 277.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Hamburger SV | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hamburger SV | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FC Köln | 80c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed 1. FC Köln | 80c | 18.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.