Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c057472fc6145595dc1951771c06c27beeaf85dea4e1b71b050ef623bb21539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 70c | 4,286$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,836$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 30c | 637.29$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Under | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…a09bbacked Under | 65c | 573.52$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 46c | 434.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 45c | 418.15$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…da14backed Over | 31c | 365.61$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 32c | 363.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Over | 34c | 341.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Over | 31c | 320.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 70c | 228.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3f12backed Under | 69c | 182.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…3bc6backed Under | 69c | 182.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 146.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 34c | 124.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 119$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 100.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Under | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 47.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 47.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Over | 45c | 31.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Over | 38c | 30.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 23.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.