Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0032037f678f65fab5c8205db9545654fc38fd41614f0c1fa962771e001debae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,054 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 3,180$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 1,290$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 59c | 1,044$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 643.58$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 59c | 307.54$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 59c | 279.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 48c | 164.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 41c | 148.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 59c | 127$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 41c | 127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 58c | 85.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…cfc3backed Yes | 59c | 84.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 50c | 41.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 41c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.