Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955fad3b3839a5e2a89e26fc145227467df56cd2add239dd89a05d31551a6bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,864 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 4,738$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 577.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 65c | 575$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 25c | 393.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 69c | 319.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 78c | 259$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 24c | 249.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…bccabacked Over | 74c | 223.44$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…65aabacked Under | 26c | 223.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5676backed Under | 24c | 214.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…329bbacked Over | 76c | 214.07$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 77c | 202.88$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 24c | 133.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 23c | 83.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 78c | 70.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Over | 65c | 61.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 76c | 49.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 76c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.