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Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,792 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over55c8,985$4,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.183953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.9533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c5,588$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.813,28842.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L-74.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9916946.2%78 W · 91 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under54c4,576$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.962,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over29c3,789$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.271926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae0…836abacked Under46c2,963$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.04825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c2,931$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.81,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under48c1,771$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.8315540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under46c1,661$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.581,69145%761 W · 930 L+6.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over33c1,558$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5073823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over38c1,306$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3411843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Over38c1,248$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.381838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+47.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0792…b778backed Over53c1,179$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Over40c1,004$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under60c739.96$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9848858.8%287 W · 201 L+45.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab90…5793backed Over77c700$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.251457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick70cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under47c660.58$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.115145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.37967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b09…2c43backed Under50c612.98$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.491136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under46c596.94$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.8667145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Over55c483.31$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2163339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c384.05$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.0234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under46c373.41$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.642759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005066%33 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked Under73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9df…2d62backed Over37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under48c293.76$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under61c281.12$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.311,02444.4%455 W · 569 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022357%127 W · 96 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over55c273$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1511540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under58c239.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.691,31540.6%534 W · 781 L-44.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf16…25a5backed Over52c238.36$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under46c230$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over54c222$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.888143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under30c220.34$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1914734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over54c209.25$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1135848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0129…e3c9backed Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over54c155.56$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Under47c149.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.56246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25a…d724backed Under25c140.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.641050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over53c131.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7318353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Over55c125$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.141764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.812657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x400e…374bbacked Over25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.811563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c117.12$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4220845.7%95 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Over49c113.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Over74c108$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.925860.3%35 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Under47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382564%16 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under46c106.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2517247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under46c102.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412943.4%56 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed Under46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+42.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fe2…e1eebacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5450%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4138845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ab…7555backed Over54c90.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Under49c86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Over53c86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under46c84.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under46c82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2830054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over78c70.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5512069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over46c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.365354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under46c64.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.765742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da3…1b45backed Under47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.832152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Over54c61.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Under66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.611770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.411759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Over54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Under46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.49265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x514e…a604backed Under46c58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.324100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+114%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaebc…41f2backed Over54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff2a…3319backed Over54c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.740%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2047…3313backed Over54c53.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under56c51.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.619254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Over55c43.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Under47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under46c42.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.78252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under46c40.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.081,10850.5%560 W · 548 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Over54c40.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.733151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under46c39.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5825850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over39c38.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1916046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.