MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f4599a007f84ab71bda8f88ddc89670815714f328d60966e64767ea03d45bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 70c | 1,506$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.8 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 1,008$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 472.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 75.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 79c | 65.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.