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MLB · resolved market

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,203 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under57c24,820$14,147 inLost-$14,146.8611,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over43c20,000$8,600 inWon+$11,40090846.5%422 W · 486 L+27.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over42c3,890$1,644 inWon+$2,245.7411,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under53c3,226$1,710 inLost-$1,709.542,07739.3%817 W · 1,260 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c2,025$932 inWon+$1,093.218,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over30c1,438$431 inWon+$1,006.8117442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under68c1,268$867 inLost-$866.833,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over43c1,093$470 inWon+$623.017,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under56c1,024$573 inLost-$573.3550351.9%261 W · 242 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under51c847.49$432 inLost-$432.221,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over36c734$268 inWon+$466.128,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over44c562.75$248 inWon+$315.141,01944.7%455 W · 564 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over44c459$202 inWon+$257.041,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over36c327.42$118 inWon+$209.452,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under57c248.1$141 inLost-$141.4257252.1%298 W · 274 L+2.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb727…2a9dbacked Over44c215$95 inWon+$120.47549.3%37 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under56c200$112 inLost-$11216448.2%79 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over25c199.5$50 inWon+$149.631,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over78c141$110 inWon+$30.598,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Over45c104$47 inWon+$57.238449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under57c87.72$50 inLost-$501,22250%611 W · 611 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over39c82.86$32 inWon+$50.461,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over43c76.76$33 inWon+$43.753,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over40c69$28 inWon+$41.3494456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Under61c47.77$29 inLost-$29.1827748.7%135 W · 142 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Over31c36.75$11 inWon+$25.3636451.4%187 W · 177 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.