MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aff8481827a1c5dce2bc5fde068e7c0cd09b6870983a6e70386a9d71a53c889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 222,181$122,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,981.39 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 190,000$85,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,500 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 26,794$12,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,057.39 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 55c | 20,524$11,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,236.01 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 17,080$7,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,917.58 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 56c | 16,349$9,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,193.68 | 450 | 55.1%248 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 9,150$4,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.75 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Over | 56c | 4,286$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 44c | 3,145$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.59 | 908 | 46.5%422 W · 486 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 26c | 2,755$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.27 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 44c | 2,300$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 44c | 2,116$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.17 | 816 | 47.4%387 W · 429 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 52c | 1,909$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Under | 44c | 1,513$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.63 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 53c | 1,400$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664 | 230 | 48.7%112 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 45c | 1,340$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.87 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 55c | 1,309$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.09 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 1,303$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.5 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 1,211$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.18 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…24adbacked Over | 56c | 1,206$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.46 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,055$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.34 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748d…8251backed Under | 54c | 985.37$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 833.33$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 584 | 51.5%301 W · 283 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 57c | 637.79$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.38 | 276 | 49.6%137 W · 139 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 45c | 531$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.95 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 57c | 529.87$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.9 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 45c | 454.47$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 581 | 53%308 W · 273 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 436$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 340$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 814 | 55%448 W · 366 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 47c | 313.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.53 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 302$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 45c | 275.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 459 | 58.4%268 W · 191 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 274.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 261$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 239$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 45c | 214.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 394 | 51.5%203 W · 191 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eea…8896backed Under | 45c | 205.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 151.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 45c | 114.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 413 | 41.2%170 W · 243 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 112.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,222 | 50%611 W · 611 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 101.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,209 | 29%351 W · 858 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 89.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 45c | 80.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 52c | 54.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 622 | 49.2%306 W · 316 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 55c | 50.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed Over | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 42.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 52c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…c723backed Under | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 37.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 36.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…378fbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 46c | 28.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 56c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…92d6backed Over | 53c | 24.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 411 | 53.8%221 W · 190 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.