MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc006945fd013d39fac7317ea7854aad5806249110673f09be777447da70d2dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 6,434$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.17 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 4,932$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.21 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 21c | 512.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.6 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 56c | 487.97$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.18 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 472.33$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 397.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.6 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 372.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 358.21$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 75c | 347.72$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.25 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 313.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 78c | 299.68$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.51 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 190.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 56c | 179.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 56c | 179.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 60c | 153$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 152.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 146.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 113.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 48c | 81.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Over | 56c | 53.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 63c | 49.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Over | 56c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.