Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01aa3965885c614e70a8d9a87026b4e40afb0d57dc48ea13b4162d8cf9036392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rio Ave FCof CD Tondela, Rio Ave FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,569 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rio Ave FC | 79c | 5,536$4,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.61 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CD Tondela | 21c | 4,682$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.96 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed CD Tondela | 20c | 1,247$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Rio Ave FC | 79c | 400.71$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked CD Tondela | 21c | 166.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Rio Ave FC | 79c | 163.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed CD Tondela | 21c | 110.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CD Tondela | 21c | 79.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked CD Tondela | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Rio Ave FC | 79c | 32.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Rio Ave FC | 79c | 29.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b2…03acbacked Rio Ave FC | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Rio Ave FC | 79c | 19.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rio Ave FC | 78c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)this page
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-2.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.