Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94833c7132cc069de92e12745559ad4fb6cb42954d5a962760c46adbb231a0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 25c | 9,147$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.88 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 8,541$6,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.41 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 71c | 2,574$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.64 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 2,389$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.27 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 71c | 1,577$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 1,076$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.97 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 21c | 1,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 37c | 821.94$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.93 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Over | 31c | 806$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 40c | 520.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 31c | 509.68$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 52c | 494$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.88 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Over | 41c | 489.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 38c | 450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 26c | 423.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 407.35$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 61c | 260.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 73c | 241.74$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 48c | 228.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…1d66backed Under | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 27c | 174.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 172$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Over | 31c | 158.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 41c | 153.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 39c | 142.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 77c | 133.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 31c | 122$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 104.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…f951backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…ff44backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 39c | 98.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…5083backed Over | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Over | 40c | 70.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Over | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 49c | 61.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 37c | 59.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 43c | 58.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 43c | 58.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 26c | 52.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 58c | 48.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 29c | 47.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 61c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 61c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 54c | 27.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…800cbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b151backed Over | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…1c77backed Under | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Under | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc515…3372backed Under | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Over | 73c | 15.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 72c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-2.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.