Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64eb7b4c699e2aa552bcb479ef36ba82aec5deee2f88ad1808b3b49aaf5c247a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,619 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 3,182$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 32c | 1,263$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.53 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 54c | 679.05$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.23 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 38c | 650.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 38c | 621.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Over | 47c | 546.47$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 487.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 46c | 408.12$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 398.47$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 394.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…fd48backed Over | 45c | 384$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 45c | 356$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Over | 25c | 198.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 29c | 172.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Over | 44c | 74.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 70.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 47.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 69c | 44.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 37c | 38.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…b97fbacked Under | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 53c | 33.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 46c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-2.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.