NFL · resolved market
Will Saquon Barkley rush for 117 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ab5485a65f554e399aa5fa676dc8ffbd5e174b1a890ae40cbd97b2d7703716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 47c | 453.44$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Under | 53c | 420.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 52c | 400$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 48c | 392.58$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Under | 51c | 218.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…8974backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Under | 54c | 111.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 50c | 101.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…effabacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc19…0b8abacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…1d13backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…a775backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…0b51backed Under | 53c | 23.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…1a0fbacked Under | 53c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Over | 50c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…9a97backed Over | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…bb9bbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…81f9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…7759backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…a75dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saquon Barkley rush for 117 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Jalen Hurts rush for 40 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will Patrick Mahomes rush for 30 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will Xavier Worthy rush for 7 or more yards in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.