Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01aded3f33fee1c8ee5fab491694894bee16744e05b23d713dd0e28e9208ce15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Bellucci, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Bellucci | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Bellucci | 7c | 2,526$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bellucci | 17c | 1,704$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.64 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bellucci | 18c | 1,607$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.34 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Ruud | 80c | 1,386$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Bellucci | 2c | 1,375$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Bellucci | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Bellucci | 2c | 1,030$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bellucci | 5c | 1,026$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Ruud | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bellucci | 2c | 855.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bellucci | 11c | 768.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bellucci | 3c | 762.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Bellucci | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Bellucci | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…b596backed Bellucci | 18c | 399.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bellucci | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Bellucci | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Bellucci | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Bellucci | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Bellucci | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Bellucci | 19c | 170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Bellucci | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Bellucci | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Bellucci | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bellucci | 14c | 84.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Ruud | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…67adbacked Ruud | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…2b7ebacked Bellucci | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bellucci | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…3380backed Bellucci | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Ruud | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruudthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs RuudRuud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)Ruud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Bellucci (+2.5)Ruud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.