South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ae50eae8f494198d324063cc0bdaf59ba243179b5d469d9ba89fbfaf9728e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 9,102$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.71 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…1849backed Yes | 0c | 6,920$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 70c | 6,104$4,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.11 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 2,074$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 70c | 2,035$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 716.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 653.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 27c | 547$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 530.01$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.34 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 495$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 365.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 250.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…4e8dbacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 29c | 234.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…a5a9backed Yes | 27c | 190.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 166$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 26c | 121.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Yes | 27c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…c4a4backed Yes | 28c | 74.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed No | 74c | 63.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…2812backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 38.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed No | 72c | 34.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.